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Why instead did we have a virtual dead heat? Any one of the following might have been decisive. First, the economy might not have had the potency suggested by the forecasters. Some argue that its performance as measured, for example, by real disposable income per capita has been middling, not great. Others contend it has been too good too long to have any political bite and that the credit for good economic times is widely dispersed, not centered on the incumbent administration.
And others believe that elections as referendums on the performance of the economy are diluted in an open contest, when no incumbent president is running for reelection. The exit polls lend little support to the first two of these arguments. Voters reported a buoyant national economy and markedly improved personal financial conditions.
Those indicating that the economy mattered most in their vote choice gave Gore a 22 percentage point advantage over Bush. And yet this group was less than a fifth of the electorate, suggesting that the election was framed less as a referendum on good economic times than might have been possible. After all, he along with his pursuers subjected the country to a long, painful scandal and impeachment in and early Most Americans were appalled by his behavior; he never regained the personal standing he enjoyed before the scandal.
Gore never felt comfortable running on the Clinton-Gore record. His obsession with separating himself from Clinton and running on the future, not the past, kept him from sharply framing the election as a referendum on good times. And Clinton himself, one of the most effective politicians in U. The evidence was overwhelming that he would have done more harm than good with swing voters in battleground states. Another fallout from the Clinton scandal was the mobilization of social conservatives and the accentuation of the cultural divide in American politics.
Peace, prosperity, and the Democratic agenda on debt repayment, Social Security, and health care might well have trumped traditional values had the Clinton-Lewinsky affair not offended those who were torn between economic and cultural considerations. Progress made by the Democrats earlier in winning back social traditionalists was aborted. Some argue that in his populist rhetoric, aggressive efforts to mobilize the party base of minorities and union households, and vigorous opposition to the partial privatization of Social Security he lost crucial support among moderates and new economy workers.
But the evidence for this explanation is weak. Gore ran on a platform fully compatible with the Clinton agenda. And he leavened those attacks with vigorous advocacy of new technology enterprises. He enjoyed a clear advantage over Bush among voters who identified health care or social insurance as the most important issue shaping their vote, who saw improving education or strengthening Social Security as a high priority, and who preferred using the budget surplus to pay down the national debt and shore up Social Security rather than to reduce taxes.
He was viewed as a moderate candidate and had an 8 percentage point lead over Bush among moderate voters. He also made substantial headway among affluent and highly educated white women. And Democrats ran strikingly well in the new economy areas of the country, while Republicans prospered more in traditionalist, old economy counties and states. A softer touch might well have gone down easier with middle-class voters.
But I see little evidence that Gore moved to the left ideologically and paid a painful political price for it. A fourth set of explanations centers on the candidates and their campaigns. Political scientists, including election forecasters, tend to downplay presidential campaigns. Since most citizens ordinarily pay little attention to politics and public affairs, campaigns are essential mainly in mobilizing fellow partisans and capitalizing on the broad forces that shape the context of elections.
A sharp divergence in the quality of the candidates and the effectiveness of their campaigns in exploiting opportunities or overcoming limits set by that context can make a difference at the margin. But opposing presidential campaigns usually neutralize one another. This theory was put to the test in The Bush campaign did an excellent job portraying their candidate as a strong leader and an ideological moderate, blurring differences on issues with a natural Democratic advantage, reducing the perceived policy stakes in the election, and pressing a telling critique of Gore as an overbearing and untrustworthy candidate.
Gore, like Vice President Bush in , closed a large deficit in the polls and moved into the lead by Labor Day. But unlike , Gore surrendered his lead after the first debate and thereafter played catch up. The relentless critique of his personal demeanor in the debates rude, programmed, and prone to exaggeration reinforced the personal case Bush had been making against him, one that was consistent with the story line developed in the press.
Thomas E. Mann Senior Fellow - Governance Studies. While Bush fell well short of Clinton on substantive knowledge and a capacity to use speeches, press conferences, and other public events to connect with millions of citizens, his affable and engaging personal manner, and reputation for bipartisanship and straight talk, drew a clear contrast with Gore and overshadowed his other personal shortcomings.
The impact of third party candidates on the relative standing of the major party nominees is another factor to consider. In , it was decisive. While Ralph Nader, running under the banner of the Green Party, won less than 3 percent of the national popular vote, he drew disproportionately from those who would otherwise have voted Democratic.
Nader clearly made the difference in Florida and New Hampshire. Had he not been on the ballot in either state, Gore would have been elected President. Two additional factors round out the story of how the U.
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