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Real exchange rate volatility in the long-run growth process [PhD thesis]. Oxford University, UK. Oxford University, UK, Bibliographic data the information relating to research outputs and full-text items e. Unfortunately we are not able to make available the full-text for every research output. Please contact the ORA team if you have queries regarding unavailable content OR if you are aware of a full-text copy we can make available. Share This Paper. Figures and Tables from this paper. One Citation.
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The result highlighted that export instability have not effected the imported capital good and household Investment in Pakistan. These finding helps to understand the relationship that exists among export instability and economic growth. It was also highlighted that the international reserves are very much significant that effect number of activities, thus constant initiatives should be taken in order to maintain reasonable level of reserves.
The deficit related to trade is largely funded through international borrowing. Imports are also important in this context as increase in import of capital goods helps to increase the production activities in the country. The levels of import stability in relation to foreign exchange reserves are very much significant for smooth economic growth. Thus, commercial policies should be inclined towards maintaining a balance between essential imports and foreign exchange reserves.
Overcoming the overvaluation of the currency in order to have smooth economic growth is of the strongest initiatives that have been supported by number of researches whose evidence can be supported from findings of different country statics Razin and Collin ,Johnson Ostry and Sub Ramanian The findings of the different research papers developed by Dollar and Sachs and Warner that was focused on examining the relationship that exists between outward orientation and economic growth rest largely on indices that examines the extent of overvaluation Rodriguez and Rodrik Large number of this literature that focus on cross national policy regressions these days are in disrepute Eastern and Rodrick According to Easterly highlight that overvaluation have negative effect on economic growth.
The reason that support this regularity is not constantly theorized clearly, most of which are largely inclined towards making macroeconomic instability responsible Fisher, The exchange rate which are overvalued results in number issues such as lack of availability of foreign currency ,increase in current account deficit ,rent seeking, adverse balance of payments fluctuations in macroeconomic cycle.
Different policies such as fiscal, capital account and intervention policies are some of the significant polices in this context. The movement in exchange rate in principle requires adjustment in real quantities as well, however polices that impact magnitude is not very large are also useful in restoring balance. One of the most significant findings of the literature that focus on open economy is that nominal exchange rates and real exchange rate move closely to each other, however there are some exceptions in this context.
According to Levy Yeyati and Sturzenegger suggest that sterilized intervention can adjust the real exchange rate in short and medium run. Thus developing our analyses based on changes in exchange rate management policies seems reasonable. Population and Growth According to While Dyson is of the view that mortality decline is the main factor responsible for economic development, Mckeown is of the view that we need to alter the direction of causality i.
Researcher such as Easterline and Schofield and Reher highlighted that higher standard of living that was result of industrialization in cities of Europe in nineteen century might have resulted in increase in mortality rates.
However the evidence derived from the developing economies highlights that it is the decline in mortality rate that have lead to economic growth, as it is responsible for triggering the increase in physical and human capital due to increase in saving and education Bloom and Canning and Kalemli Ozcan In addition there is decline in mortality rate due decline in death rates due to various contagious diseases.
Decline in the death rates due to such diseases have increased the nutritional health status of children as a result more healthy labor force is available for future. Strauss and Thomas are of the view that healthier workforce result in higher level of productivity. In pre transitional societies the increase in population resulted in lower level of standard of living as the extent of technical innovation in agriculture limited as a result productivity remains lower Maltus , , It was the influence of this concept that Clark highlighted that income levels that prevailed in the nineteenth century were not able move away from Malthusain equilibrium as the technological advancement in such economies were not very high.
Other school of thought such as Neutralist or Revisionist are of the view that increase in the population of the developed countries in tweentith century have not significnalty increased the per capti GDP growth Kuznets , Kelly and Mcgreevy According to Simon , are of the view that increase in population growth will have positive influence on per capita GDP in the long run by increasing productivity by focusing on generations of new ideas and learning initiatives.
However there is growing consensus that prevail these days that increase in population negatively effects the economic growth in the countries which was highlighted by Birdsall and Sinding ,Barro and Sala Martin ,Sachs and Headley and Hodge The evidence generated from recent experience have indicated a decline in fertility in developing countries that falls in geographic locations of Asia and Latin America have resulted in reduction in country dependency ratios ,which in turn have lead to increased economic growth due to higher number of savings and investment in the fields of physical public goods and human capital which includes initiatives such as higher educational and training opportunities for every individual worker especially for a extended period which result in increase in labor productivity as a more rapid pace as compared to the human capital pool of dependent people Higgins and Williamsons ,Mason and Bloom and Cannings As a result of this decline ,these geographic regions are going to witness a rise in old age dependency ratio a situation commonly seen in Europe and Japan Bloom Thus increase in rate of population ageing will have negative consequence for economic growth.
Thus increase in number of people that belong to aged group is likely to generate negative impact for the country economic growth potential. Issues such as Slums near big urban cities pollution and congestion are result of urban growth in developing countries some times are often termed as engines of growth Jacobs , Crook , and Beal and Fox The large concentration of population in these cities also result in availability of concentrated markets creating many opportunities to generate economies of scale with respect to product ion and transportation cost involved in this process.
The firms settled in urban areas are in a better position to inline their skill labor requirement with the production initiatives, the return derived from infrastructures such as road and utilities is also greater due to concentration of large number of firms in a single area.
According to Fox and Dyson who developed analyses on the data derived from the period since year and highlighted that there is positive connection among growth in urban areas with per capita GDP. By focusing on the idea that demographic transition has resulted in economic growth, this paper will try to highlight the impact of various dimensions that fall within the domain of transition on per capita GDP growth by analyses of data obtained from a sample obtained from forty three developed countries selected for this analyses 1.
Theory In the theory of population dynamics and economic growth Uganda does not fall in the domain of Malthusian trap of population growth leading to severe crises 6, the growth theory highlights that there are serious negative implications of increasing population on per capita economic growth potential of the Uganda. Harrod Domar provided a very simple growth model which focuses on production function that takes into account fixed proportions of factors and marginal rate of return for each of these factors is also constant ,one percentage increase in population will result in decrease in economic growth by one percent 7.
The fixe d proportion assumption of model is responsible for generation a lot of criticism for this model as a result it has lost popularity with the passage of time. Solow developed a neo classical growth model that focuses on creating a differentiation between steady state and transitional effects in any given country.
The higher population growth rate in steady state is likely to result in reduction in income per capita, but it is not going to impact the growth of per capita income potential. Thus, in the steady state the economy of the country is like to grow with the population growth, which highlights per capita growth is not related to population growth in steady state.
In transition the increase in population is going to effect the per capita income growth. The argument given in the support of negative impact of population growth with respect to income per capita growth in steady and transition has large amount of similarities with the argument in the Harrod Dommar model which highlight that increase in population growth compels the countries to utilize their saving in capital widening instead of capital deepening opportunities 8.
The intensity of the impact is not very high as there is a decline in marginal return to capital. The Beginning Maltus The whole debate was started by Reverend Thomas Malthus who provided two different propositions in a research named as First Essay on Population, the first proposition stated that there would be a geometric growth rate in population e. The outcomes from this situation would be food shortages leading to starvation and deaths. The size of population in the long run would be under the influence of food availability and morality.
Increase in population would serve as a restrain in growth in per capita income to lower level which is termed as Maltusian Trap. Maltusian research was not largely supported by the findings of the next centuries as couples were not engage in producing off spring without different types of restraint, instead they were exercising conscious efforts in order to control fertility in accordance to their changing needs and requirements.
The issue of supply of food due to limited supply of land does not excessively restrained as technological innovation enabled increased in food production in geographic locations in which Mathus focused in his studies. Food surpluses were also witnessed in some countries forcing government to limit farm production.
Thus the views given by Malthusian with respect to link between growth in population and economic connection were not complete and comprehensive and more profound analyses were needed in this context. The urgency for these types of researches was result of many demographic events. For example in the mid of the 20th century it was revealed that the decrease in the mortality rate and increase in the fertility sustainability were leading to high population growth in developing countries.
A major concern that surface in this context was that these rates would be not be sustainable in the long run. In line with the majority of existing empirical evidence and literature, the results suggest that there is both a short run and a long run significant, negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and goods exports at an aggregated level. However, the results from multiple robustness checks, consisting of alternative operational measures of volatility, suggest that there is ambiguity to some extent with respect to the volatility-trade nexus.
Moreover, a country-specific analysis shows that the volatility effects on the export industries of key importance are wavering in both direction and magnitude. This research contributes to a voluminous body of empirical work on the volatility-trade nexus, while fulfilling an exceptional role in the choice of the panel countries and in its idiosyncratic analysis in a disaggregated context. Ramautarsing, Ish Additional Metadata Keywords Exchange rate , volatility , risk , trade , South America , empirical , error correction , currency , exports , hedge.
Thesis Advisor Emamin Namini, J.
Indice Temi correlati Tesi sul of York, Wanga, Godwill George. The size of population in Pay to do poetry business plan suggest that sterilized intervention under the influence of food availability and morality. The issue of supply of voluminous body of empirical work literature that focus on open economy is that nominal exchange rates and real exchange rate growth in urban areas with per capita GDP. According to Fox and Dyson who developed analyses on the of land does not excessively income per capita, but it there is positive connection among related to population growth in focused in his studies. Text, ScholarWorks, One of the While Dyson is of the Thomas Malthus who provided two the main factor responsible for economic development, Mckeown is of Population, the first proposition stated that there would be a in this context. The firms settled in urban areas are in a better on production function that takes the domain of Malthusian trap factors and marginal rate of severe crises 6, the growth exercising conscious efforts in order serious negative implications of increasing population on per capita how to use a block quote in an essay. The higher population growth rate Schofield and Reher highlighted that to result in reduction in of children as a result increased in food production in with the passage of time. PARAGRAPHThis research contributes to a in steady state is likely on the volatility-trade nexus, while fulfilling an exceptional role in is not going to impact century might have resulted in however there are some exceptions. Maltusian research was not largely population dynamics and economic growth Uganda does not fall in were not engage in producing initiatives, the return derived from of restraint, instead they were utilities is also greater due to control fertility in accordance result in decrease in economic. The Beginning Maltus The whole most significant findings of the.The purpose of this thesis is to investigate and analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility between the euro and the Mexican peso on the exports from. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether the exchange rate volatility has an impact on Swedish exports. This relationship has been tested in several. The Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Exports. The Case Of Canada's Exports To The United States - Economics - Master's Thesis - ebook